El Niño is likely to persist until February 2027 and peak near the end of the year. That raises global weather risks, but it does not provide a ready-made forecast for Croatia's winter or a particular holiday destination.
A very strong signal from the Pacific
The World Meteorological Organization and Croatia's DHMZ weather service expect the current El Niño to become very strong. Their statements put the probability that it will persist until February 2027 at almost 100 per cent. It is expected to peak near the end of 2026.
That is an important global climate statement. It is not a ready-made prediction of whether Croatia will have a warm, wet, dry or stormy winter. Many overreaching headlines begin precisely at that boundary.
What El Niño actually describes
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural fluctuation in the tropical Pacific. Unusually warm sea surfaces and the atmosphere jointly alter large-scale circulation and rainfall patterns. The event recurs irregularly about every two to seven years and often lasts nine to twelve months.
Measurements include the Niño-3.4 region in the central tropical Pacific. The WMO reports an anomaly of 1.5°C above average for May to July and 2.0°C for July. Weekly values were at times 2.2 to 2.6°C above average from late July to mid-August.
Very strong does not mean the same everywhere
The category describes the strength of the Pacific signal. It does not mean every typical effect will automatically be especially strong in every place. Impacts depend on region and season, as well as other patterns operating simultaneously in the Indian and Atlantic oceans and the atmosphere.
Even in areas with known El Niño links, weather remains a matter of probability. For a small area such as Kvarner Bay, Istria or Dalmatia, the route from a global ocean signal to a local forecast is particularly long.
Why the global map is not a Croatia forecast
The global multi-model outlook for September to November shows a greater probability of above-average temperatures over almost all land areas and typical shifts in rainfall. Such maps summarise broad tendencies. They cannot identify a week of bura, a rainy day in Split or a snowfall date in Gorski kotar.
DHMZ therefore stresses that national weather services remain the authoritative source for regional forecasts and warnings. A travel decision should rely first on current Croatian warnings and the short-range local forecast—not a global El Niño graphic.
A natural phenomenon in a warming world
Human-caused climate change does not cause El Niño. The fluctuation belongs to the natural climate system. That does not mean the two subjects are unrelated: El Niño now acts on an already warmer global climate, and the combination can influence temperature records and risks of extremes.
A sound explanation therefore needs two sentences at once: the event itself is natural. Its effects unfold in a climate whose baseline has risen because of human greenhouse-gas emissions.
What travellers and coastal residents can do with it
For planning months ahead, El Niño is a background signal, not a booking calendar. Anyone travelling to Croatia in autumn or winter should allow for the usual range of regional weather and choose flexible, cancellable options where weather can strongly affect the itinerary.
Closer to departure, sources become more specific: the DHMZ regional forecast, official warnings, HAK for roads and ferries, and operators for individual connections. During an active warning, its time window matters—not the long-range category very strong.
The sensible translation of the big news
The robust interpretation is this: an unusually strong event in the tropical Pacific will help shape global weather probabilities well into 2027. Its strength raises attention to extremes and makes good seasonal models more important.
What is not robust is predicting Croatia's winter from that one piece of information. Whether a particular coastal region will be dry, mild or stormy can only be judged meaningfully with regional models and a much shorter lead time.
Evidence
Sources & date
Sources support the facts. Planning notes and recommendations are Golden Beach editorial assessments.
- El Niño has stabilised and is expected to reach very strong intensityDHMZ · 4 September 2026, checked on 4 September 2026Croatian context, expected duration and peak, and limits of local inferences
- El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather in 2027World Meteorological Organization · 3 September 2026, checked on 4 September 2026probability, Niño-3.4 measurements, typical duration and global context
